The Central Statistics Office will this morning release official merchandise trade data for October. Ireland recorded a seasonally-adjusted merchandise trade surplus of €3,193m in September, €90m lower than August’s revised surplus of €3,283m (€3,245m).
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Seasonally adjusted exports were down 4.7% in the month while imports posted a decrease of 6.2%. Meanwhile, on an unadjusted basis there was a surplus of €3,307m in September, €47m higher than the surplus of €3,260m posted in September 2012.
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The cumulative trade surplus in the first nine months of 2013 was €28,895m, €4,163m lower than the total surplus of €33,058m in the same period last year.
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Overall Irish export growth in goods and services last year was just 1.6%, well below the growth rates of 5.4% and 6.4% in 2011 and 2010 respectively. We are currently forecasting a flat performance for exports in 2013 even allowing for an increase in activity in the latter part of the year, with services up but merchandise down.
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<b><i>As regards the merchandise trade surplus, we are now projecting a figure of €38.5bn this year, down from €42.5bn in 2012. Meanwhile, a seasonally-adjusted surplus of €3,300m is envisaged for October.
<p><h5>Alan McQuaid</h5>


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